Quantification of the increase in the frequency of early calving associated with late exposure to bluetongue virus serotype 8 in dairy cows: implications for syndromic surveillance

A recent study evaluating whether reproductive data could be used for syndromic surveillance found an increased frequency of early calving (calving occurring a few days earlier than expected) in areas exposed to the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in northern Europe. A high proportion of herds infected during the 2006-2009 European outbreak were not reported through the surveillance system. The objectives of this study were (1) to quantify the increase in the frequency of early calving associated with the exposure to BTV-8 in late gestation and (2) to determine whether this association could be found in populations exposed to BTV-8 but without reported clinical signs. Increases in frequency of early calving were quantified for cows in herds located in the 2007 outbreak area in France, reported or not as cases. Increases were detected for cows in both categories of herds with a larger effect in herds reported after clinical signs. Moreover, the largest effect was found for exposures occurring during the latest stage of pregnancy, suggesting that BTV infection could trigger calving in cows in late gestation, a few days earlier than expected. This is the first study quantifying the association between a viral infection and a shortened pregnancy length (still within a normal range). The high magnitude of the increase in frequency of early calving, their occurrence in herds from infected areas but not reported, and the short time interval between exposure and the occurrence of the event confirm the interest of using early calving as an indicator for syndromic surveillance.